MATH 102 and CORE 143, Sections CX : Introduction to Statistics

TEXT: David Freedman, Robert Pisani and Roger Purves, Statistics (4th edition), W. W. Norton, 2007 (called FPP on the web pages). Supplementary readings will be accessible via the World-Wide Web, mostly from Lexis-Nexis -- from this link, make sure the search dates include the date(s) of the desired article(s) and that you are searching the proper source. (You can search the Lexis-Nexis Academic database from off-campus by approaching it through the Colgate University library website, but you will be required to provide your Colgate username and password.)

INSTRUCTOR: David Lantz

• Email: dlantz@mail.colgate.edu
• Office : McGregory 316 (upstairs, SW corner ----- Extension : 7737
• Formal Office Hours : MWF 10:20-11:10, TR 11:20-12:10
• Effective Office Hours: Weekdays, 9:00-5:00, except when I am teaching or in a meeting.
• Home: 146 Lebanon Street, Hamilton
• Phone : 824-0965 (Please do not call after 10 p.m.)

WEB ADDRESS: The course home page has the web address:

HOMEWORK: Each of the 11 units (see the course's web pages) consists of a reading assignment and exercises from the text (with occasionally an additional problem or two on the web page), an additional reading assignment from newspapers or magazines (you need not answer in homework the "Possible Essay Questions" about this reading -- see below), and in most units a computer project or a writing assignment which is one of the midterm projects -- see below. Please prepare your answers to the text exercises on sheets separate from the computer project or writing assignment; they will be turned in on separate piles and graded separately. The unit homeworks will be collected approximately weekly; due dates appear in the course calendar.

• Solutions to most of the exercises from the text will be linked to the web pages after the assignments are turned in.
• After the additional reading assignment, the web page will pose some "Possible Essay Questions." You need not turn in answers for these questions. Rather, for each exam, I will choose one or two questions from among these web-page questions, and they will be part of the exam.
• For the computer projects, write out your answers to the preliminary questions, then turn to the computer and do the project; and finally print out only the final results -- not the entire spreadsheet of data, unless it fits onto a page or two. Label the printout (by hand or in Excel) to explain clearly the meaning of the data and results presented and your conclusions or answers to any questions posed on the web page concerning the project results.

Text exercises will be graded on a scale of 2: Most papers will receive a 2, sloppy or very incomplete papers will receive a 1, and unacceptable or nonexistent papers receive a zero. Computer or writing projects will be graded on a scale of 5: Most will receive a 4, a particularly clear or insightful write-up will receive a 5, and shoddy or nonexistent efforts will receive less than 4. (Note that, on the projects, the accuracy of your results is not a factor in your grade. For most of the projects, the results may -- in fact, almost certainly will -- vary from the theory to some degree. If your program to, say, flip a fair coin 500 times yields 403 heads, you should simply report that, even though it is far above the theoretically "correct" value of 250 heads. (You may of course comment in your write-up that such a result is higher than expected.) Late homework of either type will be accepted only at the discretion of the grader.

TESTS: There will be two mid-term exams, on Tuesday evenings, 7:30-9:30 p.m.; dates and locations appear on the course calendar. If it is impossible for you to take one of the mid-terms during the scheduled time, please see me to set a time to take it early, ahead of the schedule. A cumulative final exam will be given during the officially scheduled final exam periods.

MIDTERM ONLINE SURVEY PROJECT(S): The two writing assignments will be introductions to different parts of the final project. In preparation for the second of these assignments, we will conduct an online survey of class members. About halfway through the course, you may submit a few questions for the survey, the answers to which you could use to answer some question you have formulated about Colgate students' opinions or behavior. (Keep in mind that you will have to analyze the results statistically, so they must have numerical or multiple choice answers, not free-form responses.) All the questions (perhaps in edited form) will be put into a web form; and each member of the class will take the survey. The results (without names attached) will be available in a data file that you can use in your second writing assignment (Midterm Project II) to answer the question(s) you formulated. I will keep track of who has submitted questions and/or who has responded to the survey; this information, like that of who has submitted an initial proposal and a progress report for the final project at the proper times (see the next part), will count in as part of the final project grade.

FINAL PROJECT: The final project will consist of collection of data (from your own research or survey project, library or web research, or random computer generation), the statistical analysis of the data, and a report on the results. You will also turn in:

1. about midsemester, a one-page initial proposal for the project, saying what questions you intend to investigate and how you hope to do it. If you plan to test people in any way that is dangerous or an invasion of privacy -- for example, asking for weight or taste-testing Wow chips (which some people find hard to digest) -- you should at that time submit a completed application form for approval by Colgate's Institutional Review Board [IRB] on Research on Human Subjects; see the link on the course index page for a blank form. And
2. a few weeks later, a two-page progress report, in which you will describe your success in finding data and the way you plan to analyze your data; or, if necessary, you may propose a different project.

You may earn extra credit of up to 5% of your course grade by presenting your project in class during the last two weeks of the course. These presentations are intended to give the class the opportunity to learn what should appear in their final written projects, so they and I may ask questions of the presenters. If you want to make such a presentation, contact me in time to schedule it.

GRADING: Your grade will be determined by your work on text exercises (10%), computer projects (15%), final project (10%), mid-term exams (20% each), and the final exam (25%).

SUGGESTIONS:

1. If you see an error at the board, or if you do not understand something, stop me and ask (even if everyone else seems to understand).
2. Doing the homework, regularly and thoughtfully, will contribute greatly to your success in the course.
3. Among the helps for using Excel linked to the index page, there are two worksheets, the first introducing the Excel spreadsheet program, and the second its use in simulations. If you are unfamiliar with spreadsheets and need help with these worksheets, please come to my office and we will work through them together.
4. It is a common practice, and a great mistake in mathematics courses, to spend a week working only on, say, English (especially when a paper is due), history the next, statistics the next, etc. Mathematics-based courses rely on all that has come before; the next lecture may be incomprehensible if you do not understand the last one. You are strongly advised to keep up with the work.

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